Monday, 6 September 2010

Elections - The Never Ending Story

More than two weeks have passed since the 2010 Federal election, and Australia is still without a government, with three of those independents we talked about last week (Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott) still deliberating, while Bandt and Wilkie have thrown their votes behind a Labor Government, making the scoreline 74-73 against the Coalition.

Yes, that's right, after two weeks, anyone could win. Or no-one could. If these 3 guys can't come to an agreement in the next few days, Australia is in for political turmoil and all-round crazy time. Here's how it works.

If the big three come down on the side of the government, Labor will have a 77-73 majority (Tony Crook of the nationals is still insisting he's a party in his own right, but no-one is really listening). Who knows what Labor would have to offer Bob Katter and Tony Windsor to make this happen, but if they could it would make the most stable possible option.

If the 3 go to the Coalition, they could form government, but it's possible that Crook could come into play and block the election of a Speaker. Without a Speaker there's no House, and no government, so that's a pretty drastic move on his behalf. If he doesn't cross the floor, then the Coalition will come into power with a friendly Senate (until July), but only need to lose one vote in the House to block their legislation.

If the 3 split, with Oakeshott to Labor and the other two to the Liberals, we'd be in a bit of a pickle. With 75 apiece it's possible that either side could still form government, but it would rely on a lot of wheeling and dealing in each and every vote for the government to get anything done. It could be a weird time to be in federal politics.

Anyway, if you care at all you know all this, so I'll get to the point. The main reason for this post is that with 80% of the vote counted, it looks like Bob Day might make the Senate in South Australia. It's no sure thing yet, but if he gets in (with only 4% primary vote) I will feel justified for my wild predictions of three weeks ago, and you will have to bow down and pay homage to me as the Election King.

I hope to be able to write tomorrow sometime that we have a government.


Alethea said...

Oh hell, that is a fine line Bob Day is on there...

UnwiseOwl said...

I'm hoping that he doesn't get in (Mr. Fielding has not imbued me with trust for Family First), but if he does I will consider myself justified.

Alethea said...

Man it's like they're doing the hokey pokey with those counts!